Hong Kong’s insurance and tourism sectors have recorded a recovery, supported by rising visitor arrivals, particularly from Mainland China, which is expected to sustain demand for cross-border life insurance products.
According to data from Jefferies’ tracker, which analyses daily immigration flows, monthly tourism statistics and market data from the Hong Kong Insurance Authority (HKIA), visitor momentum has shown consistent improvement. Monthly arrivals surpassed five million for the first time since 2019 in August last year and reached the same level again in February 2026.
Provisional figures show that average monthly arrivals in the first quarter of 2026 stood at 4.8 million, representing a 17% increase compared with 4.1 million in the same period of 2025. Mainland Chinese visitors remained the primary driver of this recovery, with average monthly arrivals rising to 3.7 million, up 20% from 3.1 million a year earlier.
Jefferies noted that although insurance and wealth management products are distributed to a broader regional customer base, demand remains concentrated among Mainland Chinese visitors (MCVs) and local residents. Despite the improvement in visitor numbers, the firm stated that global expectations for Hong Kong’s market performance remain subdued.
Following recent field observations in Hong Kong, the United States, and Europe, Jefferies identified a divergence between international investor sentiment and on-the-ground market conditions. International investors remain relatively cautious, while local participants report stronger activity and improved sales conditions across the city.
Visitor and Insurance Indicators
| Indicator | Period | Figure | Year-on-year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average monthly total arrivals | Q1 2026 | 4.8 million | +17% |
| Average monthly Mainland arrivals | Q1 2026 | 3.7 million | +20% |
| Average monthly total arrivals | Q1 2025 | 4.1 million | — |
| New business premiums (HKIA) | Q4 2025 | — | +33% |
Insurance sector performance data from the HKIA showed that new business premiums increased by 33% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025. While this marked a slowdown compared with earlier quarters—when growth ranged between 43% and 69%—Jefferies attributed the moderation to seasonal patterns. Historically, bancassurance and broker channels tend to record stronger sales activity in the earlier part of the year.
Looking ahead, Jefferies indicated that early indicators and recent market observations suggest a strong first quarter in 2026, with continued sales momentum expected to carry into the year.
In terms of distribution channels, the firm highlighted an annual shift towards bancassurance. Growth in early 2025 was primarily driven by banks and brokers, whereas agency channels became more prominent in the fourth quarter. This shift contributed to AIA Group regaining market leadership in the fourth quarter, consistent with its historical position in most previous years.