Dai-ichi Life Lifts Outlook to $3.3bn

Dai-ichi Life has upgraded its profit outlook, citing improving investment conditions, stronger bond yields and resilient policy retention, according to an analysis published on 17 February 2026.

The insurer raised its adjusted profit forecast for the financial year ending March 2026 to $3.3 billion (¥500 billion), an increase of $0.2 billion (¥30 billion) from its previous projection. The revision follows a reported December profit of $2.7 billion (¥422 billion), placing interim results at approximately 90% of the full-year target. Management attributed the upward adjustment primarily to higher investment returns and improved equity-related income.

Net investment income is expected to rise substantially in fiscal 2026, supported by rising long-term Japanese government bond yields and increased equity sales activity. Forecasts indicate a 24.9% increase to $12.9 billion (¥1,980 billion), compared with $10.3 billion (¥1,586 billion) in fiscal 2025. Investment yield is projected to improve from 2.7% to 3.2%, reflecting a widening positive spread between asset returns and guaranteed policy rates.

Policy cancellation rates have remained broadly stable despite rising domestic interest rates. Only a modest uptick has been observed in withdrawals from lump-sum products. Analysts attribute this resilience to the company’s significant exposure to protection-oriented products, which generally carry lower surrender risk than savings-type contracts.

Revenue growth is also expected to remain steady. Total revenue is forecast to increase by 4.8% in fiscal 2026 to $36.1 billion (¥5,552 billion). Net earned premiums are projected to rise by 5.0% to $23.2 billion (¥3,572 billion), indicating continued underlying demand across core business lines.

Morningstar projects that the insurer’s longer-term profitability trajectory remains positive. Overseas profit is targeted to reach $2.3 billion (¥350 billion) by fiscal 2030, compared with $1.3 billion (¥200 billion) in fiscal 2025. Return on tangible equity is expected to improve to approximately 12% by fiscal 2027 and remain near that level through to 2030, signalling a sustained enhancement in capital efficiency.

Key Financial Indicators

Overall, the upgraded guidance reflects strengthening financial conditions, disciplined underwriting performance and improving spreads in Japan’s fixed-income markets. The outlook suggests that investment momentum, rather than premium expansion alone, will be the principal driver of earnings growth into fiscal 2026 and beyond.