The global reinsurance and insurance sector is set to enter 2026 in a comparatively favourable macroeconomic environment, according to the latest annual assessment from Swiss Re. The report highlights that the world economy is expected to maintain growth of around 2.8%, broadly in line with the previous year, signalling a period of relative stability after several years of volatility.
Inflation, while gradually easing across most major economies, is not expected to move in a straight downward path. Short-term fluctuations are likely to persist, particularly in regions still adjusting to tighter monetary conditions and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Nevertheless, the overall inflation trajectory is seen as increasingly contained, offering some relief to insurers and reinsurers in terms of pricing predictability and investment planning.
Resilient macro backdrop, moderating premium growth
Swiss Re notes that in 2025 the global economy demonstrated notable resilience despite ongoing trade tensions, policy ambiguity and geopolitical risks. Labour markets remained firm, and financial assets benefited from relatively strong returns. Insurers, in particular, gained from higher yields on long-dated government bonds, which supported investment income and helped stabilise balance sheets.
However, premium growth in the global insurance market slowed in 2025. Real growth is estimated at 3.9%, down from 5.7% in 2024. This deceleration is interpreted as a normalisation following the post-pandemic expansion phase, rather than a structural weakness in demand.
Looking ahead to 2026–2027, global insurance premium growth is projected to moderate further to an average of around 2%. Financial markets may experience intermittent volatility, driven by elevated asset valuations and persistent policy uncertainty. Even so, underlying economic expansion and the availability of relatively safe fixed-income instruments are expected to provide a stabilising foundation for the sector.
Investment income remains a key support
A central pillar of sector resilience remains the sustained yield from long-term government bonds. These instruments continue to provide insurers with stable investment returns, reinforcing profitability even as underwriting margins face competitive pressure in certain markets.
Property and casualty segment under pressure
The property and casualty (P&C) insurance segment is expected to experience slower growth over the forecast period, averaging approximately 1.1% in 2026–2027. Intensifying competition and pricing pressure are likely to constrain expansion in several mature markets. However, structural drivers such as rapid urbanisation, rising asset concentration, increasing exposure to natural catastrophes, and growing investment in technology and artificial intelligence-related infrastructure are expected to underpin long-term demand.
Life and health insurance remains resilient
In contrast, the life and health insurance segment is projected to remain comparatively robust, with average growth of around 2.8% during 2026–2027. Rising awareness of risk protection, combined with sustained demand for savings-linked products, is expected to support continued expansion. Additionally, stabilising mortality trends following the post-pandemic period and steady investment income from fixed-income assets are likely to reinforce financial resilience in this segment.
Outlook summary
| Indicator | 2025 Outcome | 2026–2027 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Global economic growth | ~2.8% | ~2.8% |
| Global insurance premium growth | 3.9% | ~2.0% |
| Property & casualty insurance | Relatively strong | ~1.1% average |
| Life & health insurance | Stable growth | ~2.8% average |
| Inflation trend | Gradually easing | More contained |
Conclusion
Overall, Swiss Re expects the global insurance and reinsurance industry to remain on a stable and sustainable growth path in 2026. While competitive pressures in certain segments and periodic financial market volatility may weigh on performance, the broader outlook remains constructive. Supported by steady economic growth, resilient investment income and structurally positive demand trends, the sector is positioned to navigate uncertainty while maintaining its long-term growth trajectory.