Thai Life Insurance has experienced a notable shift in its product mix, favouring endowment and whole life policies, which has significantly increased its premium intake but exerted pressure on profitability, according to a recent report by Maybank Securities.
The insurer is expected to experience only limited momentum in the near term, as growth stabilises and claims pressure gradually eases. Despite this, earnings growth is projected to remain steady over the coming years, reflecting a normalisation of premium expansion and improved claims management.
Sales of health insurance products are anticipated to remain subdued through early 2026, primarily due to a high comparative base from the previous year. First-year health premiums dropped sharply by 43% year on year in October 2025, following robust sales ahead of the March 2025 introduction of copayment rules.
Meanwhile, the strategic pivot towards endowment and whole life offerings has proved effective in bolstering premium growth. Endowment and whole life policies recorded year-on-year increases of 42% and 87%, respectively, lifting overall first-year premiums by 19%. Nevertheless, these products typically deliver lower margins compared with traditional health offerings.
Consequently, the value of new business (VNB) margin is projected to decline to approximately 45% in Q4 2025, down from 57% a year earlier. Overall VNB is expected to fall 15% year on year to around $0.13 billion (THB4.1 billion), even as the annualised premium equivalent rises by an estimated 8%.
Claims may remain elevated in the short term, driven by a surge in influenza cases. Yet, core profit for Q4 2025 is still anticipated to grow 2% year on year to roughly $0.087 billion (THB2.72 billion), underpinned by higher contractual service margin releases and favourable investment returns.
Looking ahead, core profit is forecast to expand by around 10% in 2025 and maintain steady growth of approximately 6% annually through 2026 and 2027. This outlook is supported by ongoing premium growth—particularly within health insurance—a substantial contractual service margin balance of between $2.91 billion and $3.10 billion (THB91 billion to THB97 billion), and reduced operational expenses as claims normalise under the copayment framework.
Overall, while Thai Life Insurance’s strategic shift has successfully lifted premium volumes, the accompanying margin compression underscores the delicate balance insurers face between growth and profitability in today’s competitive market.