In the first quarter of 2026, global insured losses arising from natural catastrophes recorded a marked decline, according to the latest analysis by reinsurance advisory firm Gallagher Re. The report estimates that worldwide insured catastrophe losses amounted to at least US$20 billion, representing a fall of around 26 per cent compared with the ten-year average of US$26 billion. When measured against the five-year average, the decline is even more pronounced at approximately 47 per cent.
Despite this reduction in insured losses, overall economic damage from natural disasters remained substantial. Gallagher Re places global economic losses at a minimum of US$58 billion for the quarter, which is roughly 12 per cent below the decade-long average. Analysts attribute this comparatively moderate level of losses primarily to the delayed onset of the severe convective storm season in the United States, alongside the absence of multiple high-cost, multi-billion-dollar disaster events during the period.
During the quarter, at least 17 major natural catastrophe events were recorded globally, each causing economic losses exceeding US$1 billion. However, only five of these events generated insured losses above the same threshold, highlighting a significant gap between total economic impact and insured exposure.
The most financially damaging event of the quarter was a severe winter storm that struck North America in late January. The system affected more than two dozen US states as well as parts of southern Canada between 21 and 26 January. Insured losses from this single event were estimated at approximately US$4 billion, making it the fourth most costly winter weather event in modern US insurance history.
In Europe, strong windstorm activity resulted in the highest economic losses for a storm series since 1999. Nevertheless, these events did not exceed major insured loss thresholds, limiting their impact on the global insurance market.
In the United States, losses from severe convective storms—including tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind—have shown a persistent upward trend since 2008. Over this period, there have been nine years in which losses exceeded US$20 billion and five years surpassing US$30 billion. Notably, the past three consecutive years have each recorded losses above US$50 billion, underscoring a sustained escalation in exposure and vulnerability.
Experts emphasise that these rising losses are driven not only by climatic factors but also by socio-economic developments. Key contributors include escalating construction and labour costs, general inflation, volatility in energy markets, and continued expansion of population and assets in high-risk regions.
A summary of the key figures is presented below:
| Indicator | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total insured catastrophe losses | US$20 billion | 26% below 10-year average |
| Total economic losses | US$58 billion | 12% below 10-year average |
| Major catastrophe events | 17 events | Global scale |
| High-loss insured events (>US$1bn) | 5 events | Threshold exceeded |
| Costliest event | North American winter storm | ~US$4 billion |
Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, described the continued rise in severe storm-related losses in the United States as concerning. He noted that while climate variability plays a significant role, broader social and economic dynamics are equally influential in shaping loss trends. Bowen cautioned that without sustained investment in resilient infrastructure, risk-aware urban planning, and strengthened insurance frameworks, future loss volatility could intensify.
He further highlighted that the rapid expansion of data centres and technology-driven infrastructure is introducing new and evolving risk concentrations, which may further amplify global catastrophe loss trends in the years ahead.